I will be in the office Thursday afternoon (officially 1:00 - 3:30, but may be there earlier or stay later).
I will also be in the office Friday, by 11 a.m.
You can always slide your projects under the door if I am not in.
Please, if you are needing some help or stuck on something, do not hesitate to stop by the office on Thursday. I know some of you are being challenged by using Excel. I'm happy to help out.
JJ
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Review for final stuff
Just a reminder. Your final is Wednesday, Dec. 15, at 10:15.
Some sample multiple choice problems from Mankiw, chapters 10-12 have been placed on the I-drive. (Sorry the chapter 10 was a large file. It got scanned in "color" when it should have been scanned black and white, as ch. 11 and 12 were.)
Don't worry if any of the questions pertain to "large economy" analysis. The questions are all for "small country" analysis. So some of the mc problems on the review are not relevant. I just copied what was in the student study guide. The answers are all on the last page of each document.
My objective for mc and the problems (which you were given in advance) are designed to range from simple to challenging. It is appropriate for you to think beyond the minimum for some challenging problems. There should be a good mix of multiple choice problems.
I know a lot of this material is, indeed, challenging. I've tried to defend myself and the course objectives. I'm not wanting to give people a hard time. But I do aim to prepare a fair and not tricky exam.
(Again, in my defense, as an undergrad I had exams in all my classes and I'd guess all but three or four were comprehensive. So having a final that's just over a few chapters is my doing you a favor, I think.)
Anyway, I had a great time this semester. You guys were a good group. I can tell that those who are working hard are going to get their A's and B's.
I know, I'm sounding defensive, then sucking up. But hey, its after the evaluations so this should make you certain I'm truthful. I think the work expectations have been reasonable. If this has been one of your most challenging classes, I'm proud that it is. This level of course is universally challenging. Thanks for hanging in there.
So thanks for the hard work those of you have done. :-)
Good luck with this exam, your other exams, and your project.
Reminder, please get the projects to me by noon on Friday, if not earlier.
Ok, I'm rambling. I just felt I needed to reiterate some things I've mentioned before given some recent questions I've had.
JJ
Some sample multiple choice problems from Mankiw, chapters 10-12 have been placed on the I-drive. (Sorry the chapter 10 was a large file. It got scanned in "color" when it should have been scanned black and white, as ch. 11 and 12 were.)
Don't worry if any of the questions pertain to "large economy" analysis. The questions are all for "small country" analysis. So some of the mc problems on the review are not relevant. I just copied what was in the student study guide. The answers are all on the last page of each document.
My objective for mc and the problems (which you were given in advance) are designed to range from simple to challenging. It is appropriate for you to think beyond the minimum for some challenging problems. There should be a good mix of multiple choice problems.
I know a lot of this material is, indeed, challenging. I've tried to defend myself and the course objectives. I'm not wanting to give people a hard time. But I do aim to prepare a fair and not tricky exam.
(Again, in my defense, as an undergrad I had exams in all my classes and I'd guess all but three or four were comprehensive. So having a final that's just over a few chapters is my doing you a favor, I think.)
Anyway, I had a great time this semester. You guys were a good group. I can tell that those who are working hard are going to get their A's and B's.
I know, I'm sounding defensive, then sucking up. But hey, its after the evaluations so this should make you certain I'm truthful. I think the work expectations have been reasonable. If this has been one of your most challenging classes, I'm proud that it is. This level of course is universally challenging. Thanks for hanging in there.
So thanks for the hard work those of you have done. :-)
Good luck with this exam, your other exams, and your project.
Reminder, please get the projects to me by noon on Friday, if not earlier.
Ok, I'm rambling. I just felt I needed to reiterate some things I've mentioned before given some recent questions I've had.
JJ
Monday, December 13, 2010
Big Bad Oops
I don't think I saved off the revised version of the 421 project. I will rebuild it but I have to do that later. Until I post it, if you need a copy you should stop by the office.
Oh, and i cut off the part (d) of problem 1 on the last homework. You need to change G by 75 or up to 175.
Oh, and i cut off the part (d) of problem 1 on the last homework. You need to change G by 75 or up to 175.
Friday, December 10, 2010
A revised updated project
An updated version (of problem 2) is on the I-drive folder. It is the same that was handed out in class on Friday the 10th.
Check the comments to this post for some comments from Nathan for plotting the data for the Philips curve. (He'll get to it at some point.) (Thanks Nathan)
Check the comments to this post for some comments from Nathan for plotting the data for the Philips curve. (He'll get to it at some point.) (Thanks Nathan)
Monday, December 6, 2010
Homework points
One thing that should make you all a bit happy is that up to and including homework #7 (which is due Friday), there is a total of 13 homework points. Since the syllabus expectation is 20 homework points, you will all receive 7 "free" points.
Friday, December 3, 2010
The Data Hunt
I'm hoping by now most of you have found your data for the research project problems. If not, you are probably falling behind. I do know several of you have asked for assistance finding the data. Isn't data gathering hard? Yes, it is one of the biggest problems in research (not just economic research but all empirical research). Fortunately for us (and the problems we are looking at on the "research project") the government has a lot of data. So maybe its not all in the same place. (Why would we expect it to be?)
So here are your starting points: I'm not going to give you too much detail because you need to "enjoy" the problem that is finding and formatting the data.
For the first problem you need GDP figures and Money Supply figures.
GDP figures can be found at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (we've visited this site before). www.bea.gov. Within a few clicks you will be able to find a link where it will spit out into an excel file nominal and real GDP. (Remember, they will use terminology like "current dollar" GDP and the "chained-dollar 2005" GDP. Current dollar is nominal. Chained-dollar is real. If you're lucky to get this far, you'll see you have more data than you need. Just copy the annual figures and the year and put them in your main excel worksheet.
For money supply figures you have to go to FRED. FRED is the Federal Reserve Economic Data site, run by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
You will need to click around but you can find M1 and M2 monies. In fact, if you play around enough, you can find that you can get annualized averages for these. (Which could work better than end of year values. That substitution is fine.)
You may also note that FRED has GDP, price level, and unemployment information as well. I haven't spent much time in those areas of the FRED site but you may find all your data right there, including data for the second problem.
Now, the place I will initially suggest for finding the unemployment rates and inflation rates is at the Bureau of Labor statistics (BLS). You can get inflation rates based on the CPI and also the unemployment rates. Just click on the "dinosaur" next to the data you're looking for. You can play around there to find the data you need. Remember, if you download the CPI, you will have to calculate the percentage change from the previous period. Excel can do that for you also.
When you print out the data to attach to the back of your paper, you should have, basically, two Excel worksheets: One for problem 1, one for problem 2. If you format it right, you should be able to get each table on its own page. Ideally a 2 page appendix is desire.
If you haven't started, get crackin'. If you have started, I hope you are having fun, or at least understanding the frustrations of research. This project, in part, aims to get you to appreciate the data collection problem of research. It's what we do. If you're to learn economics, you may as well learn about our research frustrations.
Warning: This paper is due on Monday the 13th. I will be OUT OF TOWN the weekend before its due. (Just for those concerned: Its not a health-related out-of-town trek but a mental-health-related out-of-town trek. I'll be in Las Vegas and not likely interested in answering data questions that weekend. Or any questions. If you're having trouble at that point, you should pray that the weather keeps me stranded in Vegas (something I actually wouldn't mind).)
Peace out, data scouts!
So here are your starting points: I'm not going to give you too much detail because you need to "enjoy" the problem that is finding and formatting the data.
For the first problem you need GDP figures and Money Supply figures.
GDP figures can be found at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (we've visited this site before). www.bea.gov. Within a few clicks you will be able to find a link where it will spit out into an excel file nominal and real GDP. (Remember, they will use terminology like "current dollar" GDP and the "chained-dollar 2005" GDP. Current dollar is nominal. Chained-dollar is real. If you're lucky to get this far, you'll see you have more data than you need. Just copy the annual figures and the year and put them in your main excel worksheet.
For money supply figures you have to go to FRED. FRED is the Federal Reserve Economic Data site, run by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
You will need to click around but you can find M1 and M2 monies. In fact, if you play around enough, you can find that you can get annualized averages for these. (Which could work better than end of year values. That substitution is fine.)
You may also note that FRED has GDP, price level, and unemployment information as well. I haven't spent much time in those areas of the FRED site but you may find all your data right there, including data for the second problem.
Now, the place I will initially suggest for finding the unemployment rates and inflation rates is at the Bureau of Labor statistics (BLS). You can get inflation rates based on the CPI and also the unemployment rates. Just click on the "dinosaur" next to the data you're looking for. You can play around there to find the data you need. Remember, if you download the CPI, you will have to calculate the percentage change from the previous period. Excel can do that for you also.
When you print out the data to attach to the back of your paper, you should have, basically, two Excel worksheets: One for problem 1, one for problem 2. If you format it right, you should be able to get each table on its own page. Ideally a 2 page appendix is desire.
If you haven't started, get crackin'. If you have started, I hope you are having fun, or at least understanding the frustrations of research. This project, in part, aims to get you to appreciate the data collection problem of research. It's what we do. If you're to learn economics, you may as well learn about our research frustrations.
Warning: This paper is due on Monday the 13th. I will be OUT OF TOWN the weekend before its due. (Just for those concerned: Its not a health-related out-of-town trek but a mental-health-related out-of-town trek. I'll be in Las Vegas and not likely interested in answering data questions that weekend. Or any questions. If you're having trouble at that point, you should pray that the weather keeps me stranded in Vegas (something I actually wouldn't mind).)
Peace out, data scouts!
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Test 2
Hey folks:
Don't get too excited. I have not been able to access your tests this weekend as hoped. So they will NOT be scored by Monday. (But I will have to have them scored and grades computed by Monday midnight.) You will get your results on Wednesday.
I hope it was not too much of an inconvenience being absent on Friday. (One hypothesis is that having the professor OUT of the room during a test puts the test taker at more ease, therefore marginally improving performance. What do you think? Add comment.)
JJ
Don't get too excited. I have not been able to access your tests this weekend as hoped. So they will NOT be scored by Monday. (But I will have to have them scored and grades computed by Monday midnight.) You will get your results on Wednesday.
I hope it was not too much of an inconvenience being absent on Friday. (One hypothesis is that having the professor OUT of the room during a test puts the test taker at more ease, therefore marginally improving performance. What do you think? Add comment.)
JJ
Monday, October 4, 2010
Homework #4 *updated*
The 4th homework assignment, currently set to be due on Friday, will be due on Monday. Yeah, I know, its homecoming. But sincerely, you should be able to answer all of these by doing the assigned readings in Chapter 4 of the Mankiw text.
Know these relationships:
Quantity equation: M x V = P x Y
M = money supply
V = velocity
P = price level (not turned into "index form" by being multiplied by 100)
Y = real output (real GDP)
The above can be stated in "percent change form" as:
(%change M) + (%change V) = (%change P) + (%change Y) which means:
monetary growth rate + change in velocity = inflation rate + real GDP growth rate
Fisher equation is
nominal interest rate = real interest rate + inflation rate. You can use algebra to solve for unknowns.
For problem 3, look at the equation of exchange and see what will happen. *update: invoke the "quantity theory" in that Velocity is argued to be constant. That will help you draw the conclusion.*
For problem 4, poke around here.
Know these relationships:
Quantity equation: M x V = P x Y
M = money supply
V = velocity
P = price level (not turned into "index form" by being multiplied by 100)
Y = real output (real GDP)
The above can be stated in "percent change form" as:
(%change M) + (%change V) = (%change P) + (%change Y) which means:
monetary growth rate + change in velocity = inflation rate + real GDP growth rate
Fisher equation is
nominal interest rate = real interest rate + inflation rate. You can use algebra to solve for unknowns.
For problem 3, look at the equation of exchange and see what will happen. *update: invoke the "quantity theory" in that Velocity is argued to be constant. That will help you draw the conclusion.*
For problem 4, poke around here.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Test 1 grade distribution
Here is some information regarding the first test.
Out of a possible 30 points:
average = 22.07 (73.6%)
median = 23 (76.67%)
modes = 22, 23 (each has 3 observations)
standard deviation = 3.49 (11.63%)
Given that the average/median are below 80%, you can use the following "curve" to interpret your score. (Bear in mind, I only record raw scores and these scores are appropriately weighted given the number of points on the test and the point value of the test as declared on the course syllabus. I do not record letter grades for tests.)
A range: 25.5 and higher
B range: 22.5 to 25
C range: 18.5 to 22
D range: 15-18
F range: below 15 points (15 points is 50%, a very reasonable cut off for a passing score.)
The number of A and B range scores outnumber the C, D, and F range scores. So the distribution is a bit top heavy.
For those with good scores, keep up the good work. If you did not get the score you desired, I would hope you spend a bit more time and concentration with the material for the next test (Friday, October 22).
Out of a possible 30 points:
average = 22.07 (73.6%)
median = 23 (76.67%)
modes = 22, 23 (each has 3 observations)
standard deviation = 3.49 (11.63%)
Given that the average/median are below 80%, you can use the following "curve" to interpret your score. (Bear in mind, I only record raw scores and these scores are appropriately weighted given the number of points on the test and the point value of the test as declared on the course syllabus. I do not record letter grades for tests.)
A range: 25.5 and higher
B range: 22.5 to 25
C range: 18.5 to 22
D range: 15-18
F range: below 15 points (15 points is 50%, a very reasonable cut off for a passing score.)
The number of A and B range scores outnumber the C, D, and F range scores. So the distribution is a bit top heavy.
For those with good scores, keep up the good work. If you did not get the score you desired, I would hope you spend a bit more time and concentration with the material for the next test (Friday, October 22).
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Office Hours 9/29
Hey folks:
I will not be in my office for regular office hours today, September 29. Those hours today will be rescheduled for 3:30 - 4:15 on Thursday, and 12:30-1:30 on Friday this week. Thursday office hours (12:30-1:30 are scheduled as usual).
You should have gotten the email about today's class meeting cancellation.
I apologize for any inconvenience.
JJ
I will not be in my office for regular office hours today, September 29. Those hours today will be rescheduled for 3:30 - 4:15 on Thursday, and 12:30-1:30 on Friday this week. Thursday office hours (12:30-1:30 are scheduled as usual).
You should have gotten the email about today's class meeting cancellation.
I apologize for any inconvenience.
JJ
Monday, August 30, 2010
Welcome!
Welcome to the blog space for Prof. Jack Julian's Econ 421 course (Macroeconomic Analysis) at IUP.
It is useful to bookmark this page for easy reference (assuming you are using your own computer). (You can always find the URL for this page on the syllabus which is stored on the I-drive.)
Also, sometimes you will find you have to refresh or reload this page to get the most recent updates as sometimes your browser may just bring up the cached page.
The publisher's page for the textbook, Macroeconomics by N. Gregory Mankiw, is here.
Please try to obtain a copy of this text asap.
Have a great semester!
It is useful to bookmark this page for easy reference (assuming you are using your own computer). (You can always find the URL for this page on the syllabus which is stored on the I-drive.)
Also, sometimes you will find you have to refresh or reload this page to get the most recent updates as sometimes your browser may just bring up the cached page.
The publisher's page for the textbook, Macroeconomics by N. Gregory Mankiw, is here.
Please try to obtain a copy of this text asap.
Have a great semester!
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